'What will matter in 2024 from the market standpoint is the direction of interest rates globally, as well as in India.' 'The results of the general elections will also be keenly watched.'
Mutual funds' equity buying remained elevated for the fifth consecutive month in December, taking the net equity purchase past Rs 1.7 trillion in 2023. The aggressive buying in December indicates that flows into equity funds are likely to have remained unaffected by the sharp run-up in the market last month. Mutual funds (MFs) bought equities worth Rs 23,000 crore last month (until December 28) compared to Rs 18,000 crore in November, shows data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investments in the domestic debt market surged in December, marking a 77-month high, that is, since July 2017. According to market participants, this significant uptick in FPI inflows can be attributed to the post-domestic policy outcome and the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the December policy. FPI inflows into debt stood at Rs 18,393 crore in December against Rs 14,106 crore in November, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
Active largecap funds, which have the toughest job in terms of outperforming the benchmark, did better in 2023 as their bets in the mid and smallcap stocks paid off.
The upper market capitalisation (mcap) threshold for midcap and smallcap stocks in the mutual fund (MF) industry's revised list of stocks, to be announced this month, is set to see the second-highest yearly rise in the past five years. The list was first announced in 2018, and it has been revised every six months since then. According to estimates released by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research, the upper threshold for the midcap and smallcap universes could come in at Rs 66,700 crore and Rs 21,900 crore in the next list.
Banks submitted bids amounting to Rs 4.75 trillion, around 2.5 times of the notified amount of Rs 1.75 trillion, at the Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRR) auction conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on December 22, a day after the liquidity deficit in the banking system widened to Rs 2.5 trillion. In the most recent VRR auction held by the RBI on December 15, bids totaling 2.7 times the notified amount were received. Banks secured Rs 1 trillion at a weighted average rate of 6.63 per cent.
Hybrid mutual fund (MF) offers, expected to drive higher investor interest after the change in debt fund taxation, are set to end 2023 with the slowest account growth in the past three years. Investment accounts in hybrid funds are up 5.7 per cent so far in 2023 compared with 7.6 per cent in 2022 and 20 per cent in 2021, shows the data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). In 2020, the count had dipped 2.4 per cent.
Actively managed debt funds with the flexibility to go long on duration made a strong comeback on the returns chart in 2023, thanks to softening bond yields. The average one-year returns of floater, long-duration, gilt, and dynamic bond funds, which ranged between 2.3 per cent and 4.5 per cent at the end of 2022, now stand at over 7.2 per cent, with some schemes delivering over 8.5 per cent, according to data from Value Research. Debt fund returns are inversely related to yields of underlying investments, meaning a decline in yields is positive for funds.
The top 50 exposures, amounting to Rs 7.8 trillion, of government-registered non-banking financial companies (G-NBFCs) constitute about 40 per cent of corporate credit within the NBFC sector, indicating concentration risk, according to the Reserve Bank of India's report "Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2022-23". Notably, all the 50 are tied to the power sector, a domain fraught with inherent challenges, the report said. The report highlighted recognising the escalating systemic importance of G-NBFCs, the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) framework had been expanded to include G-NBFCs excluding those falling within the base layer.
Post the change in debt fund taxation in March, a lesser-known hybrid fund has emerged as one of the alternatives for fixed-income investors. Equity savings schemes, the smallest hybrid fund category in terms of assets, have raked in around Rs 6,000 crore this financial year (FY24) so far compared to Rs 1,100-crore outflow in FY23. The inflows along with a strong performance led to a 50 per cent surge in assets under management (AUM) to Rs 24,100 crore during April-November, shows data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
Funds raised by banks through certificates of deposit in December clocked the highest in the financial year 2023-24 as liquidity remained tight in the system with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) infusing Rs 2.01 trillion on Monday, the highest in the current financial year. The liquidity deficit in the banking system widened to more than Rs 2 trillion on Monday on the back of advance tax outflows, market participants said. Around Rs 4 trillion worth of outflows are expected because of advanced tax and goods and services tax (GST) payments in December.
Following the sharp run in markets, valuations across the board have become elevated. The National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index now trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.3 times, 18 per cent higher than this year's low of 20.5 times. The valuation expansion in the broader markets has been sharper.
Retail investors now own a bigger slice of smallcap companies than at the start of 2023-24 (FY24), underscoring their growing conviction about investing in this red-hot space. Data from Capitaline shows mutual funds' (MFs') average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 rising to 9.26 per cent from 8.67 per cent during the first six months of FY24, with the number of companies with over 20 per cent MF holdings increasing from 24 to 28. In comparison, MF holdings in Nifty50 companies have gone up only marginally, from 9.67 per cent to 9.75 per cent.
Mutual funds (MFs) are likely to surpass foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in terms of anchor investments in initial public offerings (IPOs) for the second consecutive year. In calendar year 2023 so far, MFs have invested Rs 5,577 crore as anchor investors, compared to the Rs 5,417 crore invested by FPIs this year. In 2022, MFs put in Rs 9,026 crore as anchor investment, 21 per cent higher than the FPI tally of Rs 7,105 crore. This marked the first time since 2014 that MFs had outpaced FPIs in anchor investments.
A buoyant equity market, coupled with an improved performance of mutual funds (MFs) on the returns chart, has heightened retail investors' appetite for equities. In the past few months, equity MF schemes have seen a surge in fresh investments through both lump sum (one-time investments) and systematic investment plan (SIP) routes. During the August-September 2023 period, equity MF schemes recorded net lump sum investments of Rs 35,270 crore, compared to just Rs 5,550 crore in the previous three months, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
Market participants do not expect any immediate impact on the rupee from the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) a "comprehensive" master direction aimed at strengthening the framework for hedging foreign exchange risks. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, in his monetary policy statement, revealed that the central bank is poised to issue a master direction to consolidate guidelines for all types of forex transactions. But this development, according to market players, is more of a directional guidance than a mandatory directive.
An improved showing of mutual funds (MFs) is helping the industry attract distribution talent at a brisk pace. The industry has onboarded a net of 11,600 individual distributors in the first seven months of 2023-24 (FY24) compared to just 5,555 distributors in the whole of 2022-23 (FY23), according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India. Like most financial products, MFs also have significant reliance on individual distributors to sell their products, even as digital platforms are gaining popularity.
Notwithstanding concerns about lofty valuations, smallcaps recorded their most significant monthly gain in nearly three years in November. The National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 100 finished the month with a 12 per cent gain, the most since February 2021 when it rose by 12.2 per cent. After declining by 4.1 per cent in the preceding month, the Nifty Midcap 100 rose by 10.4 per cent, the most since July 2022.
The improvement in the performance of actively managed mutual fund (MF) schemes is acting as a key tailwind for the nearly Rs 50 trillion industry, Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) said in a report. The report adds that the two largest listed asset management companies (AMCs) - HDFC and Nippon India - are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. "The industry has a solid track record of delivering alpha on 10-year returns (70-80 per cent of assets under management (AUM) beat the benchmark), with shorter duration performance also on an upswing.
© 2025 Rediff.com - Investor Information - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances